Friday, July 17, 2026
Science

Statistical method broadens forecasts by modeling uncertainty beyond average outcomes

When it comes to statistics, we usually expect to be informed about what happens "on average." But sometimes the key information lies in deviations from that mean: how likely is heavy rain, and how likely is it to remain dry? So-called distributional regression describes not only the mean but also t...

Statistical method broadens forecasts by modeling uncertainty beyond average outcomes
Image: Phys.org
When it comes to statistics, we usually expect to be informed about what happens "on average." But sometimes the key information lies in deviations from that mean: how likely is heavy rain, and how likely is it to remain dry? So-called distributional regression describes not only the mean but also the distribution of possible values.

Originally published at Phys.org

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