Keir Starmer has one last chance to avoid Labour leadership chaos

LONDON — Keir Starmer has one shot at giving the speech of his career.

Teetering on the edge of a leadership challenge after a dire set of mid-term election results for Labour, and with pretenders to the role setting out their stalls, the British prime minister is vowing to signal a change in direction in a first formal post-vote address, set for Monday.

But POLITICO has spoken to more than a dozen ministers, MPs and advisers since Thursday’s rout who reckon their leader could already be past the point of no return with his party. “Keir won’t meet the moment, and there will be a sense of panic,” one frontbencher said. 

Internal frustrations at his slow and timid government, his numerous unforced errors and his failing communications burst into the open after Labour lost almost 1,500 council members in local elections across England, as well as the Welsh parliament for the first time since it was created in 1999, plus a Scottish election that seemed winnable 18 months ago.

Labour council members in many former industrial areas lost to right-wing insurgents Reform, while the left-wing Greens ate deep into the Labour vote in urban areas with high student and Muslim populations.

In the wake of the crushing results, some 40 MPs have called on Starmer to resign or delivered ultimatums to the same effect. As well as the so-called “usual suspects” of Starmer critics, numerous soft-left MPs who have kept their counsel in the past also went over the top, as did one ex-minister on the Labour right and another former frontbencher who threatened to trigger a leadership race if Cabinet members fail to step up.

Both those around the PM and his critics agree that if Starmer can survive his reset speech and set out the next tranche of laws his government plans to pass — due to be unveiled when parliament reopens on Wednesday — it will buy him enough time to at least attempt a turnaround.

The speech will center on “vision and values” rather than announcing new policies, according to aides familiar with the planning. It will acknowledge mistakes and attempt a more upbeat assessment of the future. It will touch on issues like disadvantaged children, national security and closer EU relations. 

“To meet the challenges that our country faces, incremental change won’t cut it,” the PM will say, to counter claims his government lacks urgency. “People need hope. We will face up to the big challenges and we will make the big arguments.”

Those around the PM argue his future cannot ride on one speech alone — but all agree a complete change of course is needed for the Starmer administration to survive.

“It’s now critical Labour seizes this moment,” said Alison Phillips, CEO of the Labour Together organization that helped propel Starmer into office. “Speculation about leadership is inevitable, but confronting the big challenges the country faces with a determination to take bold steps and spell out the necessary trade offs is vital.”

A lost hope

Critics who have witnessed Starmer resets in the past have low expectations for the speech, however.

Those expectations weren’t helped when the PM appointed veteran Labour grandees Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman to advisory roles over the weekend — prompting mockery about a lack of ideas and talent, as well as delusion about the solutions to the current crisis.

Some 40 MPs have called on Starmer to resign or delivered ultimatums to the same effect. | Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images

It was after those appointments that Catherine West blindsided Westminster with her demand for a Cabinet member to challenge the PM — vowing otherwise to do so herself. The former minister told the BBC “the voters sent us a very strong message that we are not good enough” and said other failing organizations would change their senior management. 

But her bold pitch — chalked up as an emotional response to seeing a close councillor friend lose her seat — has helped illustrate the inertia in Labour between factions wanting to trigger a leadership challenge but fearing their preferred candidate losing. 

Backers of the Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham fear the West gambit could trigger a contest too soon for their man to find a route into parliament. “Anyone calling for the PM to quit but using the words ‘orderly transition’ is talking about waiting for Andy,” one of his supporters said. 

The assumption is that a contest sooner would benefit expected candidates Wes Streeting, the health secretary, and Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister who was forced to resign from government over a tax scandal. 

The former is said to be drawing up a policy program, while the latter set one out in a social media statement on Sunday night, putting Starmer on notice ahead of his speech. “This may be our last chance,” Rayner said. “The prime minister must now meet the moment and set out the change our country needs.”

But, for either to launch their own challenge, one of three things would have to happen: They would have to go over the top and attempt to force a ballot themselves, Starmer would have to resign, or 81 nominations fellow MPs would have to back West’s candidacy to trigger a formal contest.

Fight to the end

It’s not clear whether West would gain enough nominations to trigger a race on her own — and a failure to do so could mean continued stasis.

Three people who have mulled the numbers argue excluding those backing Burnham, those wanting Starmer to remain (or at least avoid the chaos of a leadership contest) and frontbenchers unwilling to resign to support a stalking horse, she could have no path to the 81 nominations. In her BBC interview, West declined to spell out whether she thought she had the numbers. 

But even if a contest were held, Starmer would get an automatic place on the ballot and could even go on to win. Allies of the PM have insisted he would fight a challenge, as has Starmer himself. “I’m not going to walk away from the job I was elected to do in July 2024,” he told the Observer this weekend.

One former Labour aide noted that a contest including Starmer is not what the main challengers have been planning for. The hope had been that the PM would step aside, to avoid a bitter internecine fight.

But Labour MPs at their wits end want action, not hesitation. “The cabinet has a constitutional responsibility,” one said. “We’re on the verge of a government not functioning.”

Others are appalled at the descent into crisis less than two years into the first Labour government for a decade and a half. “It’s all very sad,” one minister said on Sunday. “We are throwing away a rare chance in government. I’m turning my phone off and going for a long run.”

Dan Bloom contributed to this report.