Orbán’s rival faces uphill battle to unfreeze €17B in EU funds

BRUSSELS — Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar looks poised to win Sunday’s election and put an end to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule. But even if he does, negotiations to unfreeze €17 billion in EU funding for the country won’t be easy.

On the campaign trail, Magyar pledged to quickly free up the EU payouts, which were blocked over Hungary’s democratic backsliding. That would allow him to reset Budapest’s relations with the bloc after years of bad blood between Orbán and Brussels.

“Tisza will bring home the EU funds. To unlock them, we will have a completed RRP [a plan that governs payments under the EU’s post-Covid recovery fund] by the end of August. We will discuss with EU partners how best to deliver it, also in light of the election results and what we find after Fidesz, once in government,” said Márton Hajdu, Tisza’s EU affairs chief who is running to become a member of parliament.

With just days to go until the April 12 election, officials from Magyar’s Tisza party are already war-gaming how to secure part of the frozen funds — no mean feat given the EU’s tight deadlines and the difficulty they will face in overturning many of Orbán’s constitutional reforms, which have strengthened his political control over the country’s courts.

Even if Magyar secures a big parliamentary majority, he will have little time to carry out the reforms necessary to secure the €10 billion allocated to Hungary under the EU’s post-Covid recovery funding before an Aug. 31 deadline.

And the European Commission is insisting it won’t release any money until Hungary delivers on these reforms, regardless of the election outcome.

“There is no secrecy regarding the conditions Hungary must meet to unblock the frozen EU funds,” wrote the EU’s Commissioner for Budget, Anti-Fraud and Public Administration Piotr Serafin in a statement to POLITICO.

“These are clearly set out in the Council Decision of 15 December 2022 on measures for the protection of the Union budget in Hungary. Both the government and the opposition in Hungary are fully aware of these conditions.”

The clock is ticking

During his campaign Magyar vowed to claw back the €17 billion from the EU, equivalent to roughly 10 percent of the country’s annual gross domestic product.

His Tisza party is the favorite to win, holding a 10-point lead over the incumbent Fidesz, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls. In order to secure the funds it has promised to introduce anti-corruption measures, restore academic independence and join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office — the bloc’s anti-crime agency.

Under the current rules, the Hungarian government has to fulfill 27 EU-mandated conditions — officially known as “super milestones” — that will reform the country’s procurement rules, and increase judicial independence and academic freedom as a precondition to claim any funding.

Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar addresses a crowd during a campaign stop in Eger on March 3, 2026. | Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Magyar’s push will be eased by the fact that Orbán’s government has already partly addressed the EU’s conditions over years of inconclusive talks with Brussels.

According to a 2025 report by Hungarian civil society groups, 17 of the conditions have been fully met, nine have been partly met and one remains outstanding. A judicial reform by Orbán in 2023 also led the Commission to unlock €10 billion that had previously been frozen.

“[The 27 milestones] can be achieved very quickly if there is political will,” said a Commission official who, like others quoted in this story, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.

But a major hurdle for Magyar is that he might need a two-thirds parliamentary majority — an uncertain outcome, according to polls — to carry out some judicial reforms and remove senior officials close to Orbán. For example, Hungarian President Tamás Sulyok, who is backed by Fidesz, can delay legislation and refer laws to the Orbán-friendly constitutional court.

“I think that political dynamics will be more important … I see a scenario where senior officials such as the head of the supreme court and constitutional court start cooperating with Magyar if he has a sizeable majority,” said Zselyke Csaky, a senior fellow at the Centre for European Reform think tank.

However, fulfilling the “super milestones” is only the first step toward unlocking the €10 billion post-Covid money before the August deadline. The Hungarian government will then have to carry out more granular reforms linked to the climate and digital transition to fully recover the funds.

“The money is not entirely lost, we think that part of it can be recovered,” said another senior Commission official. They added that Hungary could exploit two possible loopholes to allow for a longer deadline: transferring the money to its national promotion bank, or merging it with EU regional funding.

The remaining frozen €7 billion, for instance, is linked to separate EU payouts made to poorer regions, which are governed by different rules. Magyar has more time to claim those funds as they expire after 2028.

Hungary under Magyar will have “a pragmatic relation with [Commission President] Ursula von der Leyen and Brussels … It’s like business but mutually beneficial, for Hungary and the EU, and a keeping-your-word kind of business,” Tisza MEP Zoltán Tarr told POLITICO.

But no matter who wins, the Commission will remain under pressure from its top court to apply its rules strictly.

In a stark warning earlier this year, a senior legal adviser to the Court of Justice of the European Union recommended annulling the December 2023 decision to free up €10 billion in EU funds to Hungary. He argued that the money was disbursed before the reforms were undertaken by Orbán’s government.

“I don’t think it would be a good thing if the Commission just gave carte blanche to the new Hungarian government like it did to Poland [in 2024],” Csaky said.