Magyar plans to transform Hungary’s defense — if he beats Orbán

BRUSSELS — Péter Magyar’s potential election victory this Sunday is raising hopes Hungary will boost defense spending, stop treating Ukraine as an enemy and become a more reliable NATO partner.

But the political newcomer faces steep hurdles in achieving those goals after 16 years of rule by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Magyar’s insurgent reformist Tisza party is promising to raise defense spending to NATO’s 5 percent of GDP target by 2035, invest in Hungary’s army, review defense industry contracts for corruption and carry out sweeping reforms aimed at rooting out Russian influence across government.

“A new government will bring about a sea change” in Budapest’s defense policy, said Katalin Cseh, an independent Hungarian MP. “Tisza has been very, very outspoken about wanting to reclaim Hungary’s place in the Western alliance and staying a reliable partner in NATO.”

But Tisza will face practical and political obstacles in achieving those goals — especially if Orbán passes last-minute laws after a Magyar victory, which would make it difficult for any new government to break with past policies.

It will be “a long and uphill battle for the new Hungarian government to regain trust and … do the necessary personnel changes and technical changes,” said Andras Racz, a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations think tank.

Neither Tisza nor the Hungarian government responded to requests for comment by POLITICO.

Obstructive to constructive

Since returning to power in 2010, Orbán has increasingly aligned Hungary’s foreign policy with Russia — drawing the ire of its neighbors and fraying ties with EU partners over repeated obstructionism on Ukraine.

Budapest has been more well-behaved inside NATO, even if allies have long raised the risk of Russian influence on intelligence sharing. Recent leaks of phone calls between top Hungarian and Russian officials have “raised eyebrows” on the issue again, said one NATO diplomat.

The country was also the only NATO ally to substantially lower its defense spending in real terms between 2024 and 2025, curbing it by 6 percent — although it was still above the alliance target of 2 percent of GDP.

Alongside raising defense spending, Tisza has proposed to accelerate investment in dual-use technologies, to “review the privatization of the defense sector,” and conduct a “comprehensive audit” of IT systems in the country’s foreign ministry and defense procurement agency to identify cybersecurity vulnerabilities. It would also open the door to Ukraine’s long-term accession to the EU.

Although Magyar hasn’t focused on the issue during the campaign, there are hopes that his government could lift Hungary’s vetoes of the EU’s €90 billion loan to Ukraine or ease military support to Kyiv via Brussels’ European Peace Facility fund, said two EU diplomats, who were granted anonymity to speak freely. 

Péter Magyar, Prime Minister candidate of the Tisza Party, holds a campaign rally alongside local MP candidates in Gyor, Hungary, on April 9, 2026. | Balint Szentgallay/NurPhoto via Getty Images

“Magyar says he wants to reestablish a constructive relationship with the EU,” said one of the diplomats. “Moving on the loan would be a quick way to do so.”

Tisza could also improve trust in sharing sensitive information with allies, said two alliance diplomats. It would be “a huge change,” said a senior NATO diplomat. 

Hopes meet reality

However, a defense reset won’t be easy.

While Magyar could carry out reviews of the defense industry and Russian influence across government bodies, said Racz, enforcing wide-ranging changes will be “challenging” due to Moscow’s deeply rooted presence in Hungary’s intelligence services.

Increasing defense spending will also not be a top priority, Racz argued, given Hungary’s yawning deficit of 4.7 percent of GDP and Magyar’s campaign promises to boost social spending and improve healthcare. “In the short run, it’s excluded,” he said.

Meanwhile, domestic political pressure means a new government is unlikely to take a radically different approach to Kyiv.

“After years of Fidesz propaganda, Ukraine is not a popular topic among Hungarian voters, so he will likely have to tread very carefully,” said the first EU diplomat.

Max Griera contributed reporting.