Weapons not wealth: How the EU’s lure for new members switched focus

BRUSSELS — Countries no longer want to join the EU because it will make them richer — now it’s because it’ll make them safer.

Two decades ago, as governments in the former communist East attached themselves to Brussels, the economic lure was clear: The wealthier West could help raise salaries and living standards.

But as the postwar order crumbles and politicians question U.S. reliability, better-off nations like Iceland and Norway — which considered EU membership before and decided against it — are attracted to Europe’s clutches for the security it offers.

“EU membership has always offered stability and prosperity for European nations,” European Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told POLITICO. “Now we see that those outside of the EU are increasingly aware that, in a world of competing influences, a seat at the table in the EU also offers increased security and protection.”

Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine was a major contributor to the shift. But the biggest catalyst is how Donald Trump has acted since his return to the White House in 2025, according to four diplomats, three EU and two national officials familiar with the deliberations in accession candidate countries, who were granted anonymity to speak freely.

Trump’s decision to slap tariffs on imports, his administration’s National Security Strategy that blamed the EU for hastening “civilizational erasure,” and his threat to seize Greenland — a territory of Denmark and a NATO ally — have all pushed countries toward Brussels, the diplomats said.

Iceland looks as if it’ll be first out of the blocks, with Reykjavík having sped up its timetable for a referendum on whether to resume negotiations to join the EU. “Part of the picture is the geopolitical turbulence,” Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir told POLITICO.

“We would be stronger in a bigger group with like-minded countries that speak out for democracy, freedom, human rights, territorial integrity. Not to mention nations’ rights to self-determination,” Þorgerður said. The attraction of joining the EU “is defense and security, definitely, but it’s also our economic security.”

Rich-poor divide

For current EU members, allowing wealthier countries into the club is much more attractive than accepting another batch of poorer ones from the east.

All 13 countries that joined the EU since 2004 still receive more in funding than they contribute to the central budget. That would likely also be the case for the nations on the official waiting list, including Ukraine, Moldova, Albania, Serbia and Montenegro, because EU contributions are broadly based on the size of a country’s economy. 

Those financial considerations mean it will be difficult to convince current members, all of whom would have to give their consent, that these poorer nations should be let in. The existing members would get an even smaller slice of EU funds.

Also working against that group of countries is that current member governments are wary about the strength and longevity of their commitment to the EU’s fundamental values, such as a free press, impartial judiciary and other democratic freedoms, according to three of the diplomats.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One at Palm Beach International Airport on March 23, 2026. | Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images

“We don’t want another Hungary or Slovakia,” said one of the diplomats, who is close to the discussions on allowing new members into the bloc. “We don’t know what will happen in these new countries in 10, 15 years. And then we could be stuck with another [Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor] Orbán.”

Wealthy countries with long-standing democratic institutions like Iceland and Norway wouldn’t face such hurdles. Both are usually among the world’s Top 10 richest countries when measured by nominal GDP per capita, whereas Montenegro just scrapes into the top 100 and Ukraine is projected to be 132nd for 2026.

“Of course it would be easier for Iceland or Norway to join,” said an EU official with knowledge of the accession process. “They’re basically 80 percent there” when it comes to enshrining EU law into their legal systems. “If they want to join — and it is only up to them to decide if they do — it could be very quick.”

‘Trump changes everything’

With Trump repeatedly calling into question Washington’s readiness to come to the aid of its allies, and even threatening to take Danish and Canadian territory by force, countries that have previously relied on NATO membership for security are now scrambling for alternatives.

When it comes to securing its members, “NATO has one set of tools, the EU another,” Norwegian conservative leader Ine Eriksen Søreide, who backs EU membership, told POLITICO. “And that is why being a part of the EU is important also in the security aspect for a country like Norway … We have come to a crucial point where EU membership now is important to us in other ways than before.”

Similar to NATO’s Article 5, the EU Treaty has a mutual defense clause — Article 42.7. Its existence came into focus after a British military base on the island of Cyprus was hit by a suspected Hezbollah drone earlier this month, though Nicosia did not trigger the article.

“It is not a good time to be out on your own now,” said a Norwegian official. “Trump changes everything.”

Norway applied to join the EU in 1992, but rejected membership in a referendum two years later. While the majority of Norwegians still don’t back EU membership, the “yes” camp has been growing for the past 18 months. Trump’s fury at Norway over the decision not to award him the Nobel Peace Prize also seems to have helped shift people’s perspectives.

Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 amid a financial crisis, but froze talks in 2013 after a dispute over fishing policy and after a change in its economic circumstances. It withdrew its application in 2015.

Greenland joined a precursor to the EU in 1973 as part of the Kingdom of Denmark, but left in 1985 after gaining the right to self-rule, also as a result of a dispute over fisheries policy.

As strange as it might sound, there’s also Canada. France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot and Finnish President Alexander Stubb have both suggested that Canada should consider joining the EU. While Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has pushed back on that suggestion, Ottawa is moving closer to Europe on trade and in other ways.

Britain, which voted to leave the EU in 2016, is trying to reset its post-Brexit relationship with the bloc. Since voters chose a center-left government in 2024, U.K. and EU officials have been discussing deepening the partnership again. Although there’s no prospect of the U.K. rejoining anytime soon, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s readiness to work with the leaders of France and Germany on foreign policy challenges signals that Britain and Europe remain natural allies on defense.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks in No. 10 Downing Street in London on March 5, 2026. | Jami Joy/Getty Images

Mutual defense

Of course, Icelanders and Norwegians may well opt not to join the EU, particularly if the Trump administration cools on the saber-rattling and old disputes reappear during potential negotiations. “The biggest issue will, of course, be the fisheries,” said Iceland’s Þorgerður.

Montenegro, the current EU membership front-runner, and Ukraine, the sentimental favorite, could well conclude their negotiations before Oslo or Reykjavík make up their minds. Or those capitals that have blocked any expansion of the EU since Croatia joined in 2013 could continue to veto any new entrants.

But squeezed between Trump’s America, Vladimir Putin’s Russia and China’s Xi Jinping, existing EU members could also decide that there is safety in numbers.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which propelled Kyiv toward Brussels, demonstrates the EU’s security allure.

The drone attack on a British air base on the island of Cyprus this month underscored the extent to which EU membership was a defense guarantee for Nicosia, which Turkey is blocking from joining NATO. Cyprus is divided into an occupied Turkish Cypriot north and a Greek Cypriot south.

“When the decision was taken for Cyprus to join the European Union, obviously the economic dimension was very strong,” Europe Minister Marilena Raouna told POLITICO. “But I think for Cyprus, security was always the number one.”

Like Cyprus, Ukraine is blocked from entering NATO, with Trump saying it isn’t going to happen. With that off the table, joining the EU is the only security guarantee Kyiv believes it can count on after a ceasefire with Russia.

The security benefit from Ukraine’s joining the EU would flow both ways, officials from both Kyiv and Brussels have stressed.

“We have a common interest. Ukraine can strengthen the EU defense. Just imagine if Ukrainian border guards that fought on the front line will be on Frontex [the EU’s border agency] missions in the Baltic Sea,” said Ivan Nagornyak, a Ukrainian government adviser.

For Norway, Iceland, Ukraine and others, the stark reality of the new world order has started to bite.

“There is no NATO, there is no U.S.,” said a Ukrainian official. “There are only weapons, drones, ammo. And there is EU.”

Nicholas Vinocur and Koen Verhelst contributed to this report.