Overshoot reshapes climate strategies—but the path to net zero remains unchanged

Temporary overshoot of global temperature targets—particularly the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement—is no longer just a modeling concept. New research, published in Nature Climate Change and led by the Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC) in collaboration with 14 research institutions from 10 countries, traces how overshoot has evolved over the past three decades, from a scenario tool used to explore ambitious targets to a structural feature of climate scenarios, reflecting the tension between more ambitious temperature targets and continued emissions growth. What began as a modeling tool to explore climate goals has become an almost inevitable outcome in pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement.