How to watch French local elections like a pro (Round 1)

PARIS — Voters across France head to the polls Sunday for elections that will offer major clues to next year’s all-important presidential race that the far right is tipped to win.

On the ballot are mayoral and city council candidates for France’s 35,000-plus communes, so it’s not an easy contest to analyze quickly for a sense of national trends.

Hyper-local issues and personalities will play major roles in many of the contests, often more than Europe-wide or national ones. And since the vote takes place over two rounds, with all candidates netting more than 10 percent on Sunday qualifying for the runoff on March 22, drawing early conclusions is difficult.

Fear not, though, we’ve got you.

Here’s what you need to know to follow the first round of the election like a pro.

Where should I be watching?

Paris, bien sûr.

The race to replace incumbent Anne Hidalgo as the leader of the City of Lights is shaping up to be extremely competitive. Her protégé with whom she fell out, Emmanuel Grégoire, is the Socialist candidate and front-runner, but he’s polling neck-and-neck with Rachida Dati, the conservative former culture minister. Three more candidates could qualify for the runoff as well. Should the Socialists lose control of Paris after a quarter century in power, it would be devastating for the party’s relevance heading into the 2027 presidential contest.

PARIS LOCAL ELECTION POLL OF POLLS

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For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

There’s more to France than Paris, though, even if it is by far the country’s most populous and iconic city. (Just don’t tell Parisians that.)

The French capital leans more to the political left than the rest of the country and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally — France’s most popular party according to most opinion surveys — has never been able to establish a foothold there, so it isn’t a good bellwether for the national mood.

Marseille, France’s second city, is. And the incumbent center-left candidate there faces a serious challenge from the National Rally.

Other southern cities such as Nice, Toulon and Nîmes are also far-right targets, so keep an eye on those to get a sense of whether voters are ready to hand Le Pen or Jordan Bardella the keys to the Elysée next year.

MARSEILLE LOCAL ELECTION POLL OF POLLS

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For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

Le Havre should be on your watch list too, because it’s former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe’s home base. Philippe is the mayor and is running for reelection before he sets his sights on the presidency in 2027. He’s seen as one of the strongest candidates to take on the far right, but polling suggests he faces a make-or-break battle to hold on to Le Havre.

On the left, the Greens risk losing several of the big cities they picked up six years ago, such as Bordeaux or Lyon, which could further weaken the party after a string of underwhelming results. The Socialists are hoping to hold on to Lille and Nantes in addition to Paris as they pursue a comeback following their worst-ever result in the 2022 presidential race.

And keep your eyes on Roubaix on the outskirts of Lille and the Parisian suburbs of Saint-Denis and Saint-Ouen-sur-Seine. The hard-left France Unbowed was expected to do well in those three areas, but the party’s response to the death of a far-right activist last month may threaten its electoral prospects. Wins, however, could suggest that France Unbowed’s effort to court educated, environmentally minded young voters and working-class urban populations, often of immigrant descent, is paying off.

How it will play out?

Reporting and campaigning restrictions for municipal elections, which take place every six years, kick in first thing Saturday, so you won’t be hearing from candidates most of the weekend. The media is also barred from reporting on polls or stories related to a specific race until after the vote Sunday.

Polls open at 8 a.m. across France. They close in smaller cities at 6 p.m, and at 8 p.m. in big cities like Paris, Marseille and Lyon.

Once the polls close, pollsters will start releasing estimates. These aren’t exit polls like you’d see in the United States, but an analysis of early voting results that are typically representative enough to give a sense of how a city voted.

France’s interior ministry will release official data as the night goes on and into Monday morning, by which time we’ll likely know who has been elected and who has made the runoffs in every city. 

We’ll be live blogging the result on Sunday, so tune in for the latest.

What happens after the results are in?

If a candidate nets more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round, they win outright. If not, there’s a runoff a week later for which anyone scoring more than 10 percent qualifies.

Once results are clear, there will be a mad dash to form strategic alliances or marriages of convenience in races where more than two candidates qualify for the runoff before Tuesday at 6 p.m., at which time candidacies for the second round must be finalized.

Third-place candidates can pull out of the race altogether, but they are more likely to try to negotiate a merging of electoral lists to ensure they get representation on the future city council in case their would-be ally wins.

Wait … a list?

Mayoral candidates don’t just run solo. They run an entire slate of candidates — a list — in the hopes of winning as many seats as possible on the city council.

Half the seats in the Senate are contested every three years, with the next vote slated for September. | Aurelien Meunier/Getty Images

City council seats are proportionally distributed to each list depending on their vote share, but the winner is guaranteed a majority — except in Paris, Marseille and Lyon, France’s three biggest cities, where the winning list is only guaranteed a quarter of the seats, with the rest distributed proportionally.

Local representation is important in national politics as well.

City councilors are a key segment of a French electoral college made up of about 162,000 officials that votes to elect the French Senate, the less-powerful upper house of the French legislature. Currently, France Unbowed and the National Rally have little representation in the Senate given their historically poor performance in local elections.

But half the seats in the Senate are contested every three years, with the next vote slated for September.