Ukraine’s moment to secure EU membership: Between Hungarian and French elections

KYIV — Ukraine sees a narrow window to secure its future within the EU: between the Hungarian election this April and the French presidential vote in April 2027, according to officials in Brussels and Kyiv.

Kyiv wants to have a reference to EU membership in 2027 written into the peace deal being negotiated by U.S. President Donald Trump, and it sees the interval between the two key European elections as the best time to join the bloc. The EU is working on a plan that could give Ukraine partial membership next year. This would see Ukraine gaining an observer-like status during European Council summits and in European Parliament committees, while it completes the reforms needed for full membership privileges.

“It’s true we want [a] fast track for membership,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during a press conference in Kyiv on Tuesday, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

“2027 is very important for us and, I hope, realistic so that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin cannot block our membership for decades,” Zelenskyy said. He added that Kyiv was trying to avoid the fate of its bid to join NATO, which is now effectively off the table as a result of Washington’s opposition.

The thinking is that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will not allow Kyiv’s bid to progress before April’s ballot because he has made opposition to Ukraine a key element of his reelection campaign. But Orbán may dial back his opposition if he manages to win another term, particularly if pushed to do so by Trump, according to one EU diplomat and a Ukrainian official. Both were granted anonymity to speak freely.

If Orbán loses the Hungarian ballot, both Brussels and Kyiv perceive an opening under Péter Magyar, the opposition leader who is ahead in the polls.

The EU diplomat said that while Magyar has made critical statements about Ukraine, he nonetheless appears to want to work more “constructively” with Brussels and could be motivated by the desire to have frozen EU funds for Hungary released. That could be enough of an incentive for him to lift Hungary’s opposition to Ukraine’s EU bid. If it isn’t, the U.S. administration could be called on to exert pressure — if Trump still wants to play dealmaker.

“You can rely on the European Union — we will be on your side as long as it takes,” European Council President António Costa told Zelenskyy at Tuesday’s press conference. “We are committed to building a free, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine within the European Union.”

The problem with ‘as long as it takes’

The worry in Kyiv is that, if talks drag out and Trump loses interest in a peace deal, “as long as it takes” could mean Ukraine is locked out of the bloc until after the next EU election in 2029, or even later, according to the Ukrainian official.

Brussels and Kyiv are also looking ahead to the April 2027 French presidential election, in which the far-right National Rally, which has been Kremlin-friendly in the past, is ahead in the polls. The fear is that if Marine Le Pen’s party wins the presidency before Ukraine is offered a place inside the EU, it could block membership for Kyiv.

However, full EU membership for Ukraine before 2027 is off the table, a senior EU official said.

Speaking on Tuesday alongside Zelenskyy and Costa, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that while she understood that “a clear date” is “important” for Zelenskyy, when it comes to the EU, “dates by themselves [without completing reforms] are not possible.”

Full EU membership for Ukraine before 2027 is off the table, a senior EU official said. | John Thys/AFP via Getty Images

As Ukraine continues trying to convince member countries that it will meet the criteria to join the EU imminently, talk is also turning to ways for Brussels to update the process to match the current geopolitical moment.

“I have had many meetings where we have been discussing now how we could accelerate the Ukrainian path to the European Union,” EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told POLITICO, before cautioning: “Without doing the reforms, nothing will be possible.”

But, Kos added: “We have to have a broader discussion with the European Union among the member states about the methodology of the accession process, which is not suitable anymore for the times we are living in. You know this methodology is good for peace, it is good when we have time.”

If the EU fails to adapt, it risks pushing potential EU members toward the Kremlin and its allies, she said.

“If we will not be able to integrate our candidates into the EU shortly, then there is a danger that someone else will be more influential in those countries and using them against us, weaponizing [them],” Kos said.