Macron’s last shot to extend France’s nuclear umbrella over Europe

PARIS — With only 14 months left in power, President Emmanuel Macron is now in a race against the clock to chart how France can wield the full force of its nuclear arsenal to guarantee Europe’s security more widely.

Much will boil down to whether he makes concrete commitments in a landmark speech on France’s atomic strategy on Monday, to be delivered from the Atlantic peninsula where the country’s nuclear submarines are based.

After decades sheltering under the American nuclear umbrella, European governments — particularly in Berlin and Warsaw — are increasingly warming to the idea that Paris could use Western Europe’s largest atomic arsenal to play a bigger role in safeguarding the continent’s security.

They will be paying close attention to how far Macron goes in Monday’s speech. With the war in Ukraine entering its fifth year and fears about U.S. President Donald Trump’s reliability as an ally, they will want pledges of action rather than the president’s traditional rhetoric.

Their big question, however, will be how much of a new European atomic architecture Macron can realistically lock in, with the NATO-skeptic, far-right opposition National Rally party of Marine Le Pen leading in early polls ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

European officials, military officers and diplomats who spoke to POLITICO for this article said they hoped he proposes something substantive. One senior EU government official said they had “great hopes,” while a European military officer expected “a major change.”

The speech will lay out whether Macron is willing to do something that the National Rally will find hard to unwind. Only the most far-reaching moves — deploying nuclear-capable Rafale fighter jets in European nations, for example, or stationing French nuclear warheads outside the country — would prove difficult for the next French president to reverse without weakening France’s credibility.

“It would appear that the president has a genuine desire to commit France to something that the National Rally would not be able to overturn if it came to power,” said Florian Galleri, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who specializes in nuclear deterrence. However, he conceded, “under political or economic constraints, the speech may be much more cautious, even deliberately vague.” 

France has long suggested its roughly 300 warheads could play a bigger role in a wider European security strategy, but Germany, with more developed transatlantic instincts, has traditionally been warier. That’s changing, though, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz earlier this month opened the door to German forces operating with French and British nuclear weapons.

There are also concerns that some countries could decide to go it alone: Polish President Karol Nawrocki said earlier this month that his country should start developing nuclear defenses to face the threat from Moscow.

French-led European deterrent

Elysée officials declined to predict what Macron would say, but options include an increase in France’s nuclear warheads, and the participation of European countries in France’s flagship Poker exercise that simulates a nuclear raid. European lawmakers have told POLITICO they would like to see French nuclear-capable fighter jets stationed in other countries. 

The expectation is that Macron “will confirm nuclear deterrence is and will remain one of France’s priorities, and also that France is continuing to invest” in its arsenal, Estonia’s Undersecretary for Defence Policy Tuuli Duneton told POLITICO. 

Alongside the U.K., France is one of two Western European nuclear powers. Its arsenal is both airborne and seaborne, with at least one submarine patrolling the seas at all times. | Alexis Rosenfeld/Getty Images

However, French officials have one clear red line: Any decision to launch a nuclear strike would remain in Paris. “At the end of the day, who would be able to push the button? Only France. That’s also what makes the conversation complicated,” said a second European military officer.  

Alongside the U.K., France is one of two Western European nuclear powers. Its arsenal is both airborne and seaborne, with at least one submarine patrolling the seas at all times. Unlike the U.K., Paris is not part of NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group, although French presidents have always stressed that France’s vital national interests have a European dimension. 

Paris’ push to discuss how French nuclear weapons could contribute to the continent’s security wasn’t always welcome among European leaders — but Trump’s return to the White House has changed that calculus, including in countries such as Poland and Sweden. 

Germany’s about-face has been the most striking. Berlin was once among the capitals most opposed to such talks, and is now openly confirming discussions with France.

But there are definite difficulties if the umbrella is expanded on a country-by-country basis. A senior German official told POLITICO that Berlin would not foot the bill for an arsenal fully controlled by the French. 

A NATO official also cautioned that limiting France’s defensive circle to specific EU countries could send the wrong signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin and expose the rest — a concern Merz himself raised at the Munich Security Conference earlier this month.

“We … will not allow zones of differing security levels to develop in Europe,” he said.

Shadow of 2027

Crucially, Macron’s nuclear speech comes just 14 months before he leaves office.

“We need to understand how sustainable France’s commitment is,” a European defense official stressed. 

All eyes are on the National Rally. The far-right party’s leaders have openly spoken against Macron’s nuclear dialogue with European allies. The party is internally divided over its stance toward Russia, and believes in pulling out of NATO’s integrated command structure.

While Le Pen has stressed that “nuclear power belongs to the French,” her protégé Jordan Bardella — the current favorite for the presidency after Macron — has struck a more open tone, insisting that the defense of French interests “does not stop at [French] borders.”

He has not, however, endorsed Macron’s outreach on the nuclear umbrella. 

European governments — particularly in Berlin and Warsaw — are increasingly warming to the idea that Paris could use Western Europe’s largest atomic arsenal to play a bigger role in safeguarding the continent’s security. | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images

The prospect of a National Rally win next year is creating “a credibility problem for the French offer,” a European diplomat conceded. 

Some European capitals, along with some EU officials in Brussels, are already factoring that in. That’s especially true in Germany, where some German officials and lawmakers are already working under the assumption that the next French president will be Le Pen or Bardella, several French and European officials told POLITICO. 

Jacopo Barigazzi reported from Brussels. Victor Jack contributed to this report.