Danely wrote in a Thursday note that his team’s checks suggest that AMD is taking market share from Intel (INTC)–gaining 1.5% in the first quarter—for the first time in 15 years. He predicts the gains will continue and that AMD will reach a 20% market share by the end of 2022, close to the company’s previous peak. In the beginning of 2019, AMD had a share of roughly 2.5% in server multiprocessing units, according to Citi’s data.
AMD’s share gains should last at least two years, he said—benefiting from ongoing production problems at Intel, among other things. Intel’s next-generation production technology will suffer from delays, the analyst predicted. Production holdups likely mean that Intel’s margins will thin, as semiconductor manufacturers typically increase their profit the longer a chip is produced.
For investors who buy in to Danely’s thesis, the analyst recommends a pairs trade: underweight Intel stock while overweighting AMD shares. A pairs trade typically involves two stocks whose movements are inversely linked: An investor shorts, or bets against, one, while taking a long position in the other. Danely wrote that risks to such a trade include Intel fixing its production issues in a shorter-than-expected time frame and AMD facing delays with its server chips.
Previously, Danely had justified his relatively low AMD target price with a prediction that Intel would engage in a price war with AMD and crush its advances into markets dominated by Intel. Danely wrote that he still views a price war in central processing units as likely, and now expects it to begin when personal computer sales cool and Intel’s market-share losses Mount.
Despite Danely’s positive call on AMD—and a videogame hardware announcement featuring the company’s chips—shares fell 2.4% to close the regular session at $86.93. Intel stock dropped 1.3%, to $55.81, amid broad weakness in tech, including chip stocks, after
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
(TSM) reported earnings before the opening bell Thursday. The
PHLX Semiconductor Index
Write to Max A. Cherney at email@example.com